Blog Archive

Some Thoughts on Technology and Future

Predictions


1. Auto repair shops go away. A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual
parts. An electrical engine has 20. Electric cars are sold with
lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10
minutes to remove and replace an electric engine. Faulty electric engines are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots. I am thinking....your electric engine malfunction light go on so you drive up to what looks like a Jiffy-auto wash, Your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new engine.

2. Gas stations go away. Parking meters are replaced by meters that dispense electricity. All companies install electrical recharging stations.

3. All major auto manufacturers have already designated 5-6 billions dollars each to start building new plants that only build electric cars.

4. Coal industries go away. Gasoline/oil companies go away. Drilling for oil stops. 

5. Homes produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums. 


6- The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle!
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo  paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.  What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people won't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore 's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars,
education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. 

 Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age!! 

7. Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years. 

8. Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. 

9. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties. 5. Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. 

10. In the U..S., young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70%accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will remain. 

11. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, with out accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear. 10. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood. 11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. 12. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact. 13. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue - technology will take care of that strategy. 14. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter(@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only